Apple Foldable Could Shake Up Samsung’s Dominance in North America

It’s all but official that Apple is working on a foldable and has likely secured a deal with Samsung Display for the panels. There hasn’t been any confirmation from the company yet. However, market research firms are already betting big on Apple taking the lead in the North American foldable market.

Samsung may lose its foldable market lead to Apple in North America

Counterpoint Research has published an interesting analysis. At present, Samsung holds the lion’s share of the North American foldable market at 51%. Motorola and Google hold 44% and 5%, respectively. But things could change drastically, according to Counterpoint’s forecast, with Apple taking 46%, followed by Samsung at 29%, Motorola at 23%, and Google at 3%.

Based on these projections, Samsung is set to lose the most share, dropping from 51% to 29% (22 points), with Motorola close behind at 21 points. While Samsung’s loss is slightly larger, Motorola’s position weakens more since it falls from near parity to clearly behind. Google’s dip is small and doesn’t change much.

Moreover, North America’s foldable market is expected to grow at 48% year over year. That means Apple’s massive 46% share won’t come purely at the expense of rivals. A big chunk will be driven by fresh demand, particularly from existing iPhone users finally making the jump to foldables.

“Google and Motorola have been key growth drivers in North America, but Apple’s foldable iPhone is set to significantly alter that trajectory,” notes Liz Lee from Counterpoint. “While current expectations for a stable launch timeline and production ramp remain intact, concerns around potential initial supply constraints are beginning to emerge. However, it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, and the extent and scale of any such limitations will likely become clearer as mass production ramps up going forward.”

It’ll be interesting to see how Apple’s debut foldable iPhone competes with the likes of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Wide Fold. And let’s not forget that there are reports suggesting Apple’s foldable could face delays. It’s one of the more interesting developments, because Nikkei Asia first reported that Apple had hit engineering problems. That was later debunked by Bloomberg, but now Digitimes appears to corroborate those same concerns.