In any business, one man’s loss is often another man’s gain. The same could be true for TSMC and Samsung Foundry, two of the largest semiconductor foundries in the world, who are at the center of this story.
A report from the Taiwanese outlet Taipei Times suggests that TSMC may not be able to produce 2nm chips outside of Taiwan. According to Taiwan’s Economic Affairs Minister, J.W. Kuo, TSMC is required to keep its most advanced technology within Taiwan. So TSMC may not be able to produce 2nm chips at its U.S. facility for the time being.
Meanwhile, Samsung Foundry has been on a downward trajectory, with its 3nm production falling short of early yield expectations. While the company has not officially confirmed any plans to cancel its 3nm efforts, reports suggest that it’s now shifting the focus to 2nm.
A win for one is a loss for another — and Samsung clearly has an opportunity
“Since Taiwan has regulations to protect its technologies, TSMC cannot currently produce 2-nanometer chips overseas,” said Kuo. Taiwan’s regulations require local chipmakers to only produce older-generation chips at their overseas factories, while keeping the latest technology in Taiwan.
Kuo has concerns that after Donald Trump becomes president in January 2025, TSMC could be forced to manufacture the 2nm chips in the U.S., which he believes would violate Taiwanese law. Kuo, however, noted that TSMC may eventually produce 2nm chips abroad, with the core technology remaining in Taiwan.
If things go as the minister says, TSMC will be forced to limit its 2nm chip production to Taiwan, which could directly benefit its competitor, Samsung Foundry. Unlike TSMC, Samsung isn’t bound by such restrictions and can continue producing 2nm chips at its U.S. facility.
Therefore, if things take a turn for the worse for TSMC, Samsung Foundry could have a solid opportunity to take the lead, ramping up the 2nm chip production on U.S. soil. In related news, Samsung could secure a $6.4 billion grant from the U.S. government under the CHIPS Act, potentially before Trump assumes office.
